Rockefeller Center Direct Line - Fall 2012
During the last 80 years, no incumbent President seeking re-election has been defeated in the general election unless he first faced serious opposition for his party’s nomination. Since President Obama faced no opposition in securing the Democratic Party’s nomination, it would be unprecedented in the modern era for him not to carry the election in November. Prediction markets currently assign a 59.7 percent chanceto President Obama winning re-election.
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