Download the PDF of the topline survey results for the Mid-October 2024 survey of The Dartmouth Poll here.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE (Download PDF of the release here.)
Media contact: Amy Olson | amy.d.olson@dartmouth.edu | 603-646-3274
The Dartmouth Poll
New Hampshire Poll Shows Democrats Lead in Top Races
HANOVER, N.H. – Oct. 24.2024 – Vice President Kamala Harris has a double-digit lead over former President Donald Trump in the presidential election among New Hampshire voters, according to the newly launched—The Dartmouth Poll—from the Nelson A. Rockefeller Center for Public Policy and the Social Sciences at Dartmouth.
As the first-ever Dartmouth Poll, the survey also shows that in one of most competitive gubernatorial races nationally, Democrat Joyce Craig leads Republican Kelly Ayotte in their bid to succeed Republican Gov. Chris Sununu.
The poll of 2,211 registered voters between Oct. 5 and 18 also shows Democrats ahead in the race for New Hampshire's two seats in the U.S. House.
When asked who they would support for president if the election were held in mid-October, 58.5% of Granite State voters say they would vote for Harris, 37.7% report that they would vote for Trump, and 3.7% report that they would vote support another candidate.
Likewise, Craig, the former mayor of Manchester, New Hampshire's largest city, has 51.1% support for governor, compared to 45.5% for Ayotte, a former U.S. senator and state attorney general. Sununu is finishing his fourth term and not seeking re-election.
Jason Barabas '93, the director of the Rockefeller Center and a professor of government at Dartmouth, said that "the New Hampshire gubernatorial race is among the most competitive in our survey as well as in the nation more generally." He added that, "Craig's lead over Ayotte, while still in the single digits, is somewhat surprising given past election results in recent years for the highest statewide office in New Hampshire."
The Dartmouth Poll project was created in conjunction with Barabas' fall course on election polling.
Many national media outlets and political pundits have said that the race for governor in New Hampshire will be among the most closely watched contests beyond the national presidential race.
Survey respondents were randomly selected from the New Hampshire voter file maintained by L2, a national supplier of processed and enhanced registered voter data. Respondents were recruited to join the online survey, which was conducted by faculty and student researchers at the Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth, through a postcard sent to voters' mailing addresses.
In New Hampshire's First Congressional District, U.S Rep. Chris Pappas, the Democratic incumbent, leads Republican challenger Russell Prescott in the survey, 56.8% to 41.0%, with 2.3% of voters saying they would vote for another candidate.
In the Second Congressional District, an open seat that could help determine control of the U.S. House, Democrat Maggie Goodlander, a former deputy assistant attorney general in the Justice Department, holds a solid lead over her Republican opponent, Lily Tang Williams. Goodlander has the backing of 59.4% of New Hampshire voters, while Williams has 38.2% support, with 2.4% going to other candidates. U.S. Rep. Ann McLane Kuster, D-N.H., is stepping down from Congress after six terms.
The margin of sampling error for the survey is 2.1% for the overall results and roughly 3.1% for the smaller samples in each of the two congressional districts. The survey data was weighted to match the population characteristics of New Hampshire registered voters and adjust for respondents' likelihood of voting.
For more information, please visit The Dartmouth Poll's website. Barabas can be reached at: the.dartmouth.poll@dartmouth.edu or (603) 646-0996.