What are the most pressing national security issues facing the new administration of President Donald Trump, and how can the United States effectively project leadership in an increasingly competitive global environment?
Delivering the Nelson A. Rockefeller Center for Public Policy’s annual Brooks Family Lecture on Feb. 10, Kathleen Troia “KT” McFarland, who was deputy national security adviser early in Trump’s first presidency, said one of the best ways to guarantee America’s pre-eminence in world affairs is to ramp up domestic production of fossil fuels, a centerpiece of Trump’s “America First” agenda.
“It’s going to be great for our economy,” McFarland said. “And it has a knock-on effect in our foreign policy because our adversaries, Russia and Iran, are going to be really squeezed, very badly, very quickly, because the price of oil will fall below where they need it to be.”
Conversely, she said, given alternatives to current dependence on costly Russian oil, “Our allies, particularly in Europe, will be in a position where they won’t have to be blackmailed by Russia.”
McFarland also held national security posts in the Nixon, Ford, and Reagan administrations. From 2010-2016 she was FOX News’ national security analyst. Co-sponsored by The John Sloan Dickey Center for International Understanding, her presentation to 150 people in Filene Auditorium and another 200 viewing the livestream video was moderated by Joyce Giuffra ’91, who served as deputy press secretary for U.S. Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole in the 1990s.
Giuffra asked about the impact of raising tariffs on imported goods.
“That gives somebody like President Trump, or whoever is in the White House, an enormous amount of bargaining leverage,” McFarland answered, lamenting that taxes on vehicles exported from the U.S. have historically exceeded levies on imports.
McFarland said the threat of higher tariffs will exact help from other countries in preventing unlawful immigration, citing “the fentanyl issue, where China is participating and pushing fentanyl into the United States. Also the uncontrolled immigration of 10—well, who knows how many—million people” across the Mexican and Canadian borders.
Turning her attention to the war in Ukraine, McFarland predicted that, unlike former President Joe Biden, Trump would force the combatants to negotiate a peace settlement “that neither will like,” and that rebuilding the war-torn democracy would provide opportunities for global investment. “Within five years, Ukraine would be fully integrated into the European economy. It would be like Poland,” she said.
About another hot spot—Iran—McFarland said, “This one scares me the most,” even though Iran’s proxy defenders, Hamas and Hezbollah, have been weakened by Israel, which has also destroyed its missile defense systems in Syria.
“Is Iran going to race to the bomb, to be in a position where they have nuclear weapons that everybody will be scared of? Or will they go to a negotiating table and figure out how to have some kind of a peaceful situation with their neighbors? I don’t know the answer to that,” she said.
As for Trump’s ambition for the U.S. to own or control Greenland and the Panama Canal, McFarland said “it may sound bonkers, but it’s actually kind of brilliant.” While cautioning that some of his provocative statements should be taken “seriously but not literally,” she shares his worry that both ends of the Canal are “controlled by Chinese companies” and proposed that Greenland’s location on a key trade route and its copious untapped resources call for “an improved, increased strategic relationship.”
In a Q/A session. McFarland answered a student’s question about the role of renewable energy in shaping international power dynamics.
“I’m a big believer in renewables, but I think they’re not there yet. To meet your domestic energy needs right now, you need to have fossil fuels,” she said. “Whichever country has its own domestic supply of energy has been a country that’s had an enormous advantage. And countries that don’t have energy go to war to get it.”
Responding to another student, McFarland criticized programs promoting diversity, equity, and inclusion in the military, which she said has already been a forerunner in desegregation.
“If you’re going to spend a lot of time more concerned with social issues and checking the box of which group is represented, you’re not going to have time or bandwidth or resources to defend the United States and take care of the armed forces,” she said.
Following the conversation, Emma Brulotte ’28 and Nevaeha Carroll ’28 lingered in their seats to talk over what they had heard.
“I think it’s very valid to support your former boss, but McFarland was making claims that she supports clean energy and wants to see it developed more into the future while also dismissing the fact that the person that she is supporting is gutting clean energy initiatives and research. That juxtaposition really stood out to me,” said Brulotte.
Carroll describes herself as a liberal from a small town in Texas where conservative views hold sway. She said McFarland helped her reach a fresh understanding of “why President Trump says the things he says and why he acts the way he does and why his cabinet members have taken these stances. She did a very good job of explaining where they’re coming from and how they’re thinking. So I now understand better what that is, even though I may not agree with it.”
Before leaving the auditorium, McFarland, who had met with students earlier in the day, commended their open-mindedness. The next Rockefeller Center event, on Feb. 13 in Hinman Forum, will be a roundtable discussion about journalistic neutrality when covering politics in a polarized environment.